Hurricane season: which states will see the most storms this year?

A surface developing tropical cyclone occurs in the Atlantic Ocean every year. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 31 November, and although we do not forecast where the tropical cyclone will form, we can provide an early view of what a typical season looks like. In the last 20 years, an average of 12 named tropical cyclones have occurred in the Atlantic basin, with an average length of tropical cyclone season of 10.4 days.

Models are having a major impact on how we forecast hurricanes. When 1995-2015 was a huge sea surface temperature anomaly, the effectiveness of the satellite-based hurricane-tracking approach was very effective. However, with the impact of the global climate cycle progressing to the warming ocean and the developing role of climate change, hurricane forecasts became more and more difficult. Moreover, the sustained low pressure layers associated with each tropical cyclone that happened in the years following the most recent El Niño were also significant factors in the uneven prediction of hurricane impacts.

This year is so early in the season that projections are not as strong as they have been in the past, although they are still fairly good. The third surface tropical cyclone occurs during the third week of the year. The total cumulative strength of tropical cyclones is the average of an initial system interacting with the subtropical ridge and the strength of the residual surface heating following the development of the second wave.

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